From - Tue May 7 22:33:49 2002 From: Fred Elbel Newsgroups: alt.org.sierra-club,alt.politics.immigration,alt.politics.greens Subject: Re: Sprawl insights Message-ID: References: <3CD2BB3B.220172B2@earthlink.net> <23e7f86e.0205041156.2a0fe8a0@posting.google.com> <3CD5D957.E6C79365@earthlink.net> X-Newsreader: Forte Agent 1.9/32.560 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Lines: 78 NNTP-Posting-Host: 12.253.170.186 X-Complaints-To: abuse@attbi.com X-Trace: rwcrnsc52.ops.asp.att.net 1020783046 12.253.170.186 (Tue, 07 May 2002 14:50:46 GMT) NNTP-Posting-Date: Tue, 07 May 2002 14:50:46 GMT Organization: AT&T Broadband Date: Tue, 07 May 2002 14:50:46 GMT Path: vienna7.his.com!news.lightlink.com!nntp-out.monmouth.com!newspeer.monmouth.com!cpk-news-hub1.bbnplanet.com!news.gtei.net!feed2.news.rcn.net!rcn!wn14eed!wn2feed!worldnet.att.net!204.127.198.204!attbi_feed4!attbi.com!rwcrnsc52.ops.asp.att.net.POSTED!not-for-mail Xref: vienna7.his.com alt.org.sierra-club:570 alt.politics.immigration:9181 alt.politics.greens:10697 On Mon, 06 May 2002 00:59:31 GMT, Charles Lynch wrote: > However, demographers say that > changes in the Mexican population could lead to a drastic reduction in > migration to the US. With another 47.8 million people in the next 50 years? > In 1965 the average Mexican woman had seven children, today the average is 2.4. The problem is overall numbers. Although total fertility is decreasing in Mexico, Mexican population is projected to grow by 48% over the next 50 years, adding another 47.8 million people. This is due to population momentum, which is a function of age distribution. From "World Population Growth", Immerwahr, 1995, ISBN 0-89716-552-7, pp 182-183: "Mexico's TFR in the 1960s was about 6. In 1990 it had dropped to 3.6 and is about 3.2 [in 1995]. Because of the very high fertility of past decades, its age distribution is such that births would well exceed deaths even if it had only replacement-level fertility now. [In] Mexico with fertility still above replacement level, a momentum has been generated which will prolong population growth for a long period, even after its TFR [total fertility rate] falls below replacement level." From United Nations Population Information Network http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2000/wpp2000at.pdf 2000 data for Mexico Table 2. Total population by country, 1950, 2000, and projections to 2015, 2025 and 2050 (medium-fertility variant) year 1950 2000 2015 2025 2050 population 27.737 98.872 119.175 130.194 146.651 % increase over 2000 population - 0% 20.5% 31.7% 48.3% Table 3. Total fertility by country, for selected periods (medium-variant) Total fertility (average number of children per woman) year fertility 1995-2000: 2.75 2000-2005: 2.49 2010-2015: 2.22 2020-2025: 2.10 2045-2050: 2.10 Table 6. Annual population growth rate percentage (medium variant) 1995-2000: 1.63% 2000-2005: 1.42% 2010-2015: 1.09% 2020-2025: 0.82% 2045-2050: 0.24% Population Reference Bureau http://www.prb.org/Content/NavigationMenu/Other_reports/2000-2002/sheet3.html 2000 data, Mexico: Percent of population age 65+ 55% Life expectancy at birth: 75